Alibaba Slides 4% in Hong Kong as Iran Strikes Rattle Asian Markets. Earnings Loom.

What Happened

Alibaba (9988.HK) fell as much as 4.4% in Monday's Hong Kong session, touching HK$136.6 by mid-afternoon local time, after the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran over the weekend - killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei^[1] and sending oil prices surging as much as 8% in overnight trading.^[2] The stock briefly dipped below HK$130 intraday before recovering, and the broader Hang Seng Index fell 1.6%.^[3]

This was not a stock-specific move. It was a broad risk-off session across Asia - airlines plunged, energy names surged, and gold jumped over 2%.^[4] Alibaba, as the most liquid name on the Hang Seng Tech Index, tends to absorb more than its fair share of macro-driven selling. That is exactly what happened here.

The Bigger Picture for BABA

The Iran selloff lands on a stock that was already under significant pressure. Alibaba is now down roughly 19% over the past month^[5] and approximately 8–9% year-to-date - a sharp reversal from the AI-fuelled rally that carried the stock up 75% in 2025.^[6] For context, 9988.HK traded as high as HK$186.20 over the past 52 weeks.^[7] Today it is sitting at roughly HK$137.

We wrote on Friday about how Iran strikes could push Chinese markets into a short-term selloff, and this is playing out largely as expected. The question now is whether this is a one-session reaction or the start of something more sustained -- and the answer depends almost entirely on oil.

Earnings Are Imminent

What makes this week particularly consequential for Alibaba shareholders is that earnings are expected as early as March 10-15,^[8] though the exact date remains unconfirmed.^[9] If Alibaba reports this week - into a market rattled by geopolitical risk, rising oil, and a broad risk-off mood - the numbers will need to do the talking. A strong quarter could stabilise sentiment. A miss will compound the pain.

Wall Street Still Says Buy

Despite the recent drawdown, the majority of Wall Street remains bullish on Alibaba. The stock carries a Strong Buy consensus rating, with an average 12-month price target of roughly US$197.86 - implying approximately 37% upside from current levels.^[10] Out of analysts surveyed, 8 rate the stock a Buy and just 1 rates it a Hold, with zero Sell ratings.^[11] On the Hong Kong listing, 33 analysts recommend buying against just 1 Sell, with an average target of HK$195.74.^[12]

My view: analyst targets are a lagging indicator, and most of those were set before the Iran escalation repriced risk across the region. But the underlying message is worth noting - the people who follow this company most closely do not think it is worth anything close to where it trades today.

What to Watch

The next 48–72 hours matter. If oil prices stabilise and the conflict does not escalate further, this selloff will likely be absorbed. If the situation deteriorates, expect continued pressure on Chinese tech broadly, with Alibaba bearing the brunt as the index heavyweight.

We will be publishing a full earnings preview ahead of the BABA report. For now, this is a geopolitics-driven move on a stock where the fundamental story has not changed - but the macro backdrop has gotten considerably more complicated.